EPL Battle For Champions League, Top-four Fight
Leicester and Manchester United both won on Thursday to remain level on points in the battle for the fourth Champions League spot. Their final-day meeting is likely to be a shootout for the top four, although they could yet both finish above Chelsea. The appeal which Manchester City sent went in their favour and so the battle for the top-four is even more intense now, but City has nothing to fear alongside league winners Liverpool. The clubs battling now for the top-four finish are Chelsea Leicester City and Manchester United.
Premier League champions Liverpool and Manchester City, who will definitely finish second, have already booked their place in next season’s Champions League. But for Chelsea, Leicester and Manchester United are probably battling it out for the final two Champions League group stage spots although Wolves could also make it to the elite competition.
There is a possibility only the top three would qualify for the Champions League if the two major European club trophies are both won by English teams who finish outside this season’s top four. Wolves and Manchester United are still in the Europa League and if any of them wins the league they qualify for the Champions League automatically. We will be analysing the clubs that could possibly make to the final remaining two Champions League spot starting with the one in the third-place Chelsea.
3. Chelsea
Chelsea has two life-line to qualify for the elite competition, they are currently in the third place position passing both Manchester United and Leicester City with two points. The other life-line is their place in the Uefa Champions League, they still have a game against Bayern Munich and if they eventually wins the league they have the privileged to compete in the league as the defending champions.
Before the Champions League which comes up in August they have two tough sides to contend with, they will be playing Liverpool on the 22nd of July and Wolves on the 26th of July. Chelsea, who are one point clear of fifth place, need four points from their final two difficult games to be sure of a top-four spot.
4. Leicester City
Leicester City is in the fourth place position topping Manchester United on goal difference, the fourth-place position is their only hope of qualification for the elite competition. Leicester City has Tottenham Hotspur to play on the 19th of July and Manchester United on the 26th of July.
Leicester City is in the fourth Champions League position, but only above Manchester United their final-day opponents – on goal difference. That game could end up being winner-takes-all for the final Champions League spot. They need to win their final two games to be sure of finishing in the top four.
5. Manchester United
Manchester United have two life-lines they are in the Europa League and also have a good chance in the English Premier League, they are tie with Leicester City but Leicester is topping them with goal differece. They will guarantee a top-four finish if they win their final two games.
Leicester are above Manchester United by 3 goals difference (with four more goals scored). If they finish level on points, goal difference and goals scored, and are fourth and fifth, then it goes down to head-to-head record (factoring in away goals). United won 1-0 at home in September.
If the Foxes win 1-0 on the final day and they are level on points, goal difference and goals scored, then they would need a play-off to decide who finishes fourth. Manchester United have West Ham to play on the 22nd of July and Leicester City on the 26th of July.
1. Wolves
Crystal Palace (h, 20 July), Chelsea (a, 26 July) Wolves are six points behind the top four with a goal difference of 20 less than Leicester. Their chances are theoretical only at this stage. The teams who finish fifth and sixth will qualify for next season’s Europa League (unless they win one of next month’s European tournaments).
If the FA Cup winners finish in the top six, then seventh place in the Premier League would qualify for the Europa League. The team who qualify in the lowest league spot go into the second qualifying round.
FA Cup semi-finalists Arsenal are currently ninth in the league. At least one of Chelsea, Leicester City and Manchester United will end up in the Europa League spots but we will focus our permutations on the teams who will hope to qualify.
2. Wolves
Crystal Palace (h, 20 July), Chelsea (a, 26 July) Wolves will qualify for the Europa League if they win their final two games. It is out of their hands if they drop any points.
3. Tottenham Hotspur
Leicester (h, 19 July), Crystal Palace (a, 26 July) Spurs will be guaranteed seventh place at least if they win their final two games. But they need Wolves to drop points if they do not want to worry about who wins the FA Cup.
4. Sheffield United
Everton (h, 20 July), Southampton (a, 26 July) Sheffield United’s defeat by Leicester means their hopes of qualifying for Europe for the first time are out of their hands. They need Wolves and/or Spurs to slip up.