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Provisional modelling by WHO has indicated that Coronavirus cases in Africa could shoot up from just thousands now to 10 million within three to six months, a regional World Health Organization (WHO) official said.
Aljazeera reported Michel Yao, head of emergency operations for WHO Africa, on Thursday saying it was a tentative projection that could change. He observed worst-case predictions for the Ebola outbreak had not come true because people changed their behaviour in time.
“This is still to be fine-tuned,” he told a media teleconference. “It’s difficult to make a long-term estimation because the context changes too much and also public health measures, when they are fully implemented, they can actually have an impact.”
A new research different from the aforementioned said Africa could see 300,000 deaths from the coronavirus even under the best-case scenario, according to modeling by the Imperial College London.
A report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa has indicated that, under the worst-case scenario with no interventions against the virus, Africa could see 3.3 million deaths and 1.2 billion infections. Africa has seen more than 17,000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus and about 900 deaths so far – relatively few compared with other regions. But there are fears that the numbers could surge.
“We are concerned that the virus continues to spread geographically, within countries. The numbers continue to increase every day.” Said Matshidiso Moeti, director of WHO’s Africa region, which comprises 46 sub-Saharan nations and Algeria.